Is the hostility evident in the current immigration debate in the United States responsible for the strengthening of an ethnic political identity for Latinos? Today’s discourse on immigration has elements that clearly have been a part of the broader American political discourse from the beginning. These elements include not only conceptions of citizenship, the nature of society, and ideas of tolerance and inclusion but also nativist tendencies, as well as judgements about ‘deserving’ and ‘undeserving’ immigrants (often phrased as opinions about immigrants’ ability to ‘assimilate’).
The dependent variable in this study is the level of hostility present in the immigration debate over the past decade. This has been measured principally through: 1. the analysis of public survey data; 2. media content; and 3. the political actions regarding immigration over the past decade.
The independent variable in this study is the creation and maintenance of an effective ethnic political identity. This has been measured primarily through: 1. evidence of mutual recognition of a shared identity among different sub-groups, and levels of self-identification with that identity; and 2. the rates of purposive civic or political participation under the banner of that identity.
The question then is whether despite—or perhaps more importantly because of—this atmosphere of rejection, Latinos are increasing their levels of civic and political participation. The short answer is that Latino political influence over the past 15 years has been growing, although perhaps more due to the sheer demographic consequences of the immigration wave that came after the passage of the Hart-Celler Act in 1965 than to any nativist reaction to that wave. Nevertheless, counter-reactions to nativism have been seen to boost electoral registration and voting rates, as well as other forms of civic and political participation, although these effects have been limited either to particular locales or state (such as the reaction to Prop 187 in California), or to particular time periods (such as the 2006 marches). However, it is also evident that the negative immigration discourse has caused increasing pan-ethnic identification and political and civic mobilization directly tied to the pan-ethnic identity. There has also been an uneven but solidifying partisanship in favour of the Democratic Party.
Surprisingly, the unease caused by this ethno-racial change seems to have had—until now— arguably a greater effect on White partisanship. The enduring lead that Donald Trump has demonstrated in his campaign for the nomination of presidential candidate for the Republican Party demonstrates that there is a considerable depth of feeling amongst a portion of the population—particularly lesser-educated, older, working- and lower-middle-class Whites—against immigrants, and more specifically, Latinos. What remains to be seen is if this increasing partisanship will also translate into increased political mobilisation amongst this population.
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