Resumen de Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia: Evidence from seasonal univariate time series models

Nicholas Apergis, Andrea Mervar, James E. Payne

• This study examines the performance of four alternative univariate seasonal time series forecasting models (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average [SARIMA], SARIMA with Fourier transformation, ARAR, and fractionally integrated autoregressive-moving average) of tourist arrivals to 20 Croatian counties and the City of Zagreb. Both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts reveal that the SARIMA model with Fourier transformation consistently outperforms the other models across the respective regions investigated.