Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia: Evidence from seasonal univariate time series models

• Nicholas Apergis ^[1] ; Andrea Mervar ^[3] ; James Payne ^[2]
  1. [1] University of Piraeus

     University of Piraeus

     Grecia

     
  2. [2] Georgia College & State University

     Georgia College & State University

     Estados Unidos

     
  3. [3] Institute of Economics, Croatia

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• Localización: Tourism economics: the business and finance of tourism and recreation, ISSN 1354-8166, Vol. 23, Nº. 1, 2017, págs. 78-98
• Idioma: inglés
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • This study examines the performance of four alternative univariate seasonal time series forecasting models (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average [SARIMA], SARIMA with Fourier transformation, ARAR, and fractionally integrated autoregressive-moving average) of tourist arrivals to 20 Croatian counties and the City of Zagreb. Both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts reveal that the SARIMA model with Fourier transformation consistently outperforms the other models across the respective regions investigated.