Interactive Effects of Live Streaming Modes and Return Policies: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Manufacturers’ Pre-Sale Decisions

• Dandan Dong ^[1] ; Guoqu Deng ^[1] ; Xinxin Qie ^[2] ; Dan Ralescu ^[3] ; Ersen Miao ^[4]
  1. [1] Henan University of Science and Technology

     Henan University of Science and Technology

     China

     
  2. [2] South China University of Technology,Guangzhou, China
  3. [3] Department of Mathematical Sciences,University of Cincinnati,USA
  4. [4] Henan University of Science and TechnologyHenan University of Science and TechnologyHenan University of Science and Technology,China

  Mostrar afiliaciones +
• Localización: Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research, ISSN-e 0718-1876, Vol. 21, Nº. 1, 2026
• Idioma: inglés
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen

  • This paper investigates the interactive effects of live streaming pre-sale modes and return policies within a manufacturer’s two-stage supply chain. On the one hand, in addition to traditional pre-sales, manufacturers can adopt merchant live streaming or commission influencer live streaming to stimulate demand, enhance consumer engagement, and generate social influence. On the other hand, a “Money-back guarantee (MBG)” policy can be implemented to mitigate consumers’ valuation uncertainty. Using a game-theoretic model, we examine the manufacturer’s optimal joint decisions across six scenarios, determining the optimal conditions for activating each pre-sale mode and the MBG policy. Our findings reveal that the effectiveness of an MBG in promoting pre-sales is not universal but highly contingent on factors such as return costs, product satisfaction, and the social influence generated through live streaming. Specifically, traditional pre-sales tend to adopt an MBG only when return costs are low, whereas merchant live streaming pre-sales consistently adopt it under weak social influence. In contrast, influencer live streaming pre-sales are more likely to adopt MBGs when return costs are low; however, with high return costs, the manufacturer’s profit may fall below that of not conducting pre-sales, leading to the abandonment of this mode. Regarding mode selection, under a no-return policy, manufacturers prefer influencer live streaming when social influence is weak but switch to merchant live streaming when it is strong. When offering an MBG, manufacturers tend to commission influencer live streaming when product satisfaction and return costs are low but revert to traditional pre-sales when satisfaction is high. Conversely, with high return costs, manufacturers prefer merchant live streaming under low satisfaction but favor influencer live streaming when satisfaction is high. These findings offer valuable theoretical insights and practical guidance for manufacturers to optimize their pre-sales and return strategies under diverse market conditions.