Climate change impacts on winter tourism in the Pyrenees and adaptation strategies
- Autores: Marc Pons Pons
- Directores de la Tesis: Eric Jover Comas (dir. tes.), Martí Rosas Casals (dir. tes.)
- Lectura: En la Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) ( España ) en 2014
- Idioma: inglés
- Tribunal Calificador de la Tesis: David Saurí i Pujol (presid.), Miriam Villares Junyent (secret.), Robert Steiger (voc.)
- Materias:
- Enlaces
- Tesis en acceso abierto en: TDX
- Resumen
Climate Change has become no longer a conjecture but an objective reality. The increase of the global average temperature, the seas level rise or the increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are some examples observed during the past century that have turned the global warming into a sharply contrasted evidence. In this context of climate change, mountain regions have been defined as especially vulnerable areas. The rapid retreat of glaciers and permafrost surfaces, the decrease of snow precipitations, the increase of natural risks such as landslides or the alteration in the amount and distribution of some species prove the high sensitivity of mountain ecosystems. Moreover, in many mountain economies, reliable snowpack plays a key role as an important resource for the winter tourism industry, one of the main income source and driving force of local development in such regions. For this reason, research on the effects of Climate Change on the snowpack depth and duration is particularly necessary in order to assess the potential socioeconomic impacts in mountain regions. If we focus on Andorra and the Pyrenees, there is a research gap due to a clearly lack of academic studies in this field. For this reason, it is not accurately known how Climate Change will affect the ski industry and which are the most suitable adaptation strategies for this specific region. The main goal of this research is to analyze how climate change could affect the snow cover and the snowpack in the Pyrenean ski resorts and to assess the resulting vulnerability of the ski industry of this region. Moreover, the adaptive behavior of skiers to climate change has been included in the analysis in order to analyze the potential redistribution of visitors among the ski resorts due to heterogeneous climate change vulnerability. Based on the results, this study analyzes the suitability and sustainability of the adaptation techniques and strategies to offset the climate variability, first in a case study of Andorra in order to develop a preliminary model and finally extending the analysis to the whole Pyrenees in order to assess the potential concurrence among ski resorts with differentiated climate vulnerability and tourism attractiveness and the resulting redistribution of skiers based on their behavioral adaptation to climate effects. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions and two more including the effect of snowmaking. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.
