Evaluación holística del riesgo sísmico en zonas urbanas y estrategias para su mitigación: aplicación a la ciudad de Mérida-Venezuela.
- Autores: Nayive Jaramillo Santana
- Directores de la Tesis: Nieves Lantada Zarzosa (dir. tes.), Martha Liliana Carreño Tibaduiza (dir. tes.)
- Lectura: En la Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) ( España ) en 2014
- Idioma: español
- Tribunal Calificador de la Tesis: Xavier Goula (presid.), Horia Alejandro Barbat Barbat (secret.), Antoni Roca Adrover (voc.)
- Materias:
- Enlaces
- Tesis en acceso abierto en: TDX
- Resumen
The risk coming from natural hazards is usually assessed in physical terms by estimating the losses they may cause. Nevertheless, the risk assessment can involve such aspects as the lack of economic and social development, management deficiencies and inability of the society to respond and recover in case of a hazard event. The present research evaluates the seismic risk in a comprehensive or holistic way, namely, including the physical terms and characteristics of a social context. Specifically three methodologies are developed with regards to the assessment and management of risk in urban areas: 1) The numerical assessment of the seismic risk from a holistic perspective, based on fuzzy sets, which resulted from improving prior methodologies. This methodology allows assessing in a standardized manner the social fragility and lack of resilience, by means of the coefficient of aggravation (F), which requires a series of prevailing social indicators. The methodology allows applying it at different detail levels, regarding the amount of information available in the urban area. 2) The Multi-HAzard Risk Linguistic Assessment (MHARLA), which can be applied to a maximum of three natural hazards. This methodology is based on fuzzy logic and supported by the information provided by experts on natural hazards. 3) The proposal of action plans that help social actors responsible for making decisions on risk management to reduce risk. This methodology is based on a holistic evaluation and a Morphological Analysis (AM). In order to show the application of these methodologies, the total seismic risk and multi-hazard physical risk were assessed for the city of Mérida, Venezuela, and their future mitigation strategies were defined. Additionally, the first methodology was applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. The numerical evaluation of the Physical Seismic Risk (RF) in the city of Mérida, Venezuela, was on average Low and High for an intensity of VIII and IX respectively. The RF index of the city of Barcelona, Spain, showed on average Very Low for an intensity of VI and Low for level VII. The social context of the city of Mérida led to a greater increase in the total seismic risk level compared to the seismic physical risk level (RF). The total seismic risk is on average at a Medium and Very High level for VIII and IX intensities respectively. The city of Barcelona, Spain, showed on average a Medium level of aggravation, similar to city of Mérida, Venezuela. Nevertheless, in this case the influence of social context by districts in the city of Barcelona was low, as most of the districts maintained the same level of risk for the physical seismic risk and total seismic risk. The physical risk in the city of Mérida (Venezuela) was estimated using the MHARLA methodology. The following two hazards were simultaneously considered while using MHARLA, namely: seismic and mass movement hazards. The comparison between the linguistic (using MHARLA) and numerical (for an intensity of IX) assessments obtained for the physical seismic risk, allowed validating somewhat the linguistic methodology for the particular case of seismic hazard, since the results showed similar risk levels. The suggested methodologies, and results obtained in this work, are useful to assess from a physical or holistic perspective the potential risks in any urban area. In addition they can help to establish the actions plans for risk reduction.
