Resumen de Una propuesta metodológica para la modelación y prospección de la sostenibilidad de las cuencas hidrográficas en la Guayana Venezolana
The aim of the current research project is to design a methodological proposal for measuring and examining the sustainability of Venezuela's Guiana river basins. For this, it is proposed a hypothesis that establishes that sustainability can be represented with disciplines related to this object of study. A construct named conceptual network has been designed in order to represent the sustainability. The representation that is proposed for the sustainability is constituted by a network of concepts that derive from the disciplines related to the system which has been observed, from more than one hypothesis about the system's state and from a group of observables that allows us to determine quantities and qualities of the phenomenon observed. The representation is conformed by a relational network that would integrate the disciplines, the concepts, the hypothesis and the observables in a construct which would include the elements to model the sustainability. The Caroni's and the Caura's river basins were chosen for this study. These two rivers are the biggest tributary of the Orinoco River. It was through analytic and qualitative methods done in both river basins that sustainability was studied. To contribute to the hypothesis that is proposed in this investigation, four study cases were developed. Three of them show an affectation of the river basin¿s sustainability that was studied. One of the most outstanding factors of the unsustainability in the river basins observed is related to the artisanal mining of gold. The need of designing a consultation to experts arises from this complex problem. This consult wants to establish the motivations of these activities in order to prospect sustainability. The quantitative case and the Delphi consult have offered many proves to assert that the sustainability of the river basins studied is being very threatened.
