The importance of biotechnology has been recognized and demonstrated in practice over the years. Specifically, applications in health biotechnology stand out for their impact on human life. But this treatment that reaches the hands of the needy had to undergo a long period of trials, failures, and improvements, which involved the disbursement of large sums of capital, the achievement of specific activities developed by different actors across the world, as well as the decision-making under extremely uncertain conditions. For these reasons, a crucial moment when deciding whether to continue researching a drug candidate is its assessment.
The most used method to value health biotechnology projects is the binomial real options tree, based on statistics of similar projects. However, other qualitative and quantitative factors coexist and influence the value a drug candidate adds, beyond the cash flows it promises. Additionally, the efforts to obtain the financial funds that this type of innovation requires are not insignificant, especially in countries with less developed economies such as Cuba. Therefore, the valuation method must offer a holistic and long-term view of the project's effects.
The following research question is raised in this context: What components should a biotechnology project valuation model have to become a flexible and strategic tool in companies' decision-making? In this thesis, it is considered that the answer to this unknown is found in a model that captures the intrinsic attributes of the project under study, the characteristics of the company and the market, the long term as the preferred period for forecasting, the interdependencies between all the businesses linked while transforming a drug candidate into an established product, the uncertainty in factors or parameters, the project or company's side effects, as well as the conditions of the macro environment.
In this sense, the main aim of this research is to propose and implement a mathematical model to estimate the added value by all interconnected activities and companies along the value chain of a health biotechnology project. The model proposal consists of the computation of a single indicator that includes the economic, financial, and sustainability components.
This doctoral research provides the first bibliometric study that analyzes health biotechnology publications from the value chain perspective, proposes a National Innovation System for Cuba, uses the ANP technique based on the value chain approach, and applies the IGP to financing decisions. All of this is presented through 7 chapters, 4 of which are published papers/in the publication process.
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