Insect pests are integrated elements of forest landscape dynamics. However, an increase in the number of pest outbreaks and in their impact has been experienced in recent decades, causing severe consequences for ecosystems and society. The reasons behind these changing dynamics are mainly related to changes in land-use, climate, and the introduction of invasive species due to international trades and human mobility. The central goals of this thesis are to advance in the understanding of insect pest impacts on forest landscapes and to integrate them in modelling tools that help the prediction of consequences in a global change future. To face these goals, I defined the direct and indirect effects of insect pests and their interactions with other forest landscape disturbances (fire, drought, storms, pollution, etc.), and described the mechanisms underlying these responses. Aiming at working on a specific actual concerning pest, I examined the case of boxwood moth (Cydalima perspectalis), a Lepidoptera native to Asia and invasive in Europe since 2007. I described the ecologic niche of the species as well as its distribution and potential impact on the invaded area. Finally, I anticipated impacts of this pest and its interactions with other disturbances in the Southern Pyrenees under future climatic conditions.
In this thesis, I proposed different methodologies to study the impact of forest pests. First, I demonstrated that a combination of information from the native and invaded areas is required for a correct application of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) in invasive species. Second, I evidenced that spatially explicit simulation models are appropriate tools for the study of forest disturbances, identifying key parameters in determining their dynamics, analyzing their interactions, and anticipating their impacts in the face of global change uncertainty. Finally, I highlighted the adequacy of differentiating the presence versus the severity of a disturbance in order to effectively apply the methodologies described.
The results presented in this thesis provide new evidence of the processes governing pest dynamics – and their associated impacts – on forest functioning, in particular, the case of C. perspectalis. I demonstrated that the distribution of C. perspectalis in the Southern Pyrenees depended on the presence of the host plant (Buxus sempervirens) and the insect spread capacity (which is usually altered by involuntary anthropochory), while it was not limited by the fragmentation or heterogeneity of the habitat. However, severe defoliation was only found in places with high climatic suitability, defined by low seasonal precipitation and temperature, and low temperature diurnal range. These conditions define a continentality pattern where the most endangered boxwoods were those located near the coast and at low elevation (in the provinces of Girona, Barcelona, and Navarra) and excluding areas of the central Pyrenees (Lleida, Huesca). Future projections of C. perspectalis impact describe a cyclic consumer-resource relationship with the host plant. In addition, climate change may reduce the area of severe impact being concentrated only in few locations. The interaction between C. perspectalis and extreme drought was not significant. However, as I reported for other forest pest species, interactions with other disturbances are complex and occur in various directions, effects (antagonistic and synergistic) and spatial and temporal scales. For instance, trees that are damaged by fire or drought can synthesize ethanol, monoterpenes, and pheromones that attract insects; trees killed by an insect pest result in an accumulation of fuel that facilitates the spread of fires; trees weakened by drought have a lower response capacity (resin synthesis, regrowth capacity, etc.) and are therefore more susceptible to insect attacks. All this information offers a valuable basis for future research and for designing forest and pest management actions.
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