Resumen de Evaluation of the risk due to fluvial flooding in vehicles and road infrastructures at basin scale
Flooding can destabilize vehicles which might, in turn, exacerbate the negative effects of floods when vehicles are swept away by flows, leading to economic loss and fatalities. The main cause of death in cities during flood events corresponds to cars being swept away when they are driven by flooded roads (Jonkzman and Kelman 2005; Drobot et al. 2007; Kellar and Schmidlin 2012). In developed countries a high percentage of these deaths occurs during flash floods when drivers try to cross overflowing water bodies instead of avoiding them (Fitzgerald et al. 2010; Kellar and Schmidlin 2012). Hence, in areas subject to flash floods almost half of the victims are passengers trapped inside their own vehicles (Versini et al. 2010a).
Among the parts of the roads that are most affected by floods are bridges, which are very important infrastructure works for society. Because of this, a high percentage of bridge failures worldwide occur as a result of river floods, which has highly negative impacts for vehicles and transportation systems.
Therefore, in order to suitably manage floods, it is necessary to determine the risk of instability to which vehicles in flood-prone areas are subject. However, Despite the negative impact of floods, very few studies have centred on determining the negative effects of floods on transport systems (Molarius et al., 2014).
In this research, a new methodology to estimate this risk based on the characteristics of vehicles, floods, bridges and vehicular traffic was developed. This methodology was generated from a novel conceptual structure and mathematical development and allows to determine the risk by the statistical integral of the instability hazard and the vehicles' vulnerability. In urban areas and stream crossings, the hazard is determined by a stability criterion of partially submerged cars, the geometric characteristics of the vehicles and the hydrodynamic characteristics of the floods (depths and velocities) and their probability of occurrence, while vulnerability is calculated by combining the susceptibility and exposure of cars.
In bridges, the hazard is obtained by analysing available discharge data and the vulnerability by examining the structural condition of the bridge, the characteristics of the watershed and watercourse upstream and downstream of the structure, the stability of the channel and the potential accumulation of debris.
The developed methodology was implemented to determine the risk in the following case studies, which are located in Spanish territory: (i) in the urban areas corresponding to the towns of Alfafar and Massanassa; (ii) in the stream crossings located in the municipality of Godelleta; and (iii) in 12 river bridges located. The results obtained could be indicating that the proposed method takes into account the most important elements to be considered when establishing this type of risk.
The developed methodology provides a detailed vision of the vehicle instability risk due to flooding in a given area. Consequently, implementing this methodology can help to reduce negative effects before and during flooding events, which is extremely helpful for those organizations in charge of urban planning and civil protection to design and take actions that cushion the negative effects of flooding.
