Analisis y mejora de los sistemas de prediccion del nivel del mar en las costas españolas
- Autores: Jaime López Marco
- Directores de la Tesis: Manuel Espino Infantes (dir. tes.)
- Lectura: En la Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) ( España ) en 2008
- Idioma: español
- Tribunal Calificador de la Tesis: Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo (presid.), Marcos García Sotillo (secret.), José Luis Pelegrí Llopart (voc.), Damià Gomis Bosch (voc.), Eric Dombrowski (voc.)
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- Resumen
In this document, the main concepts to understand the sea level variations are introduced by splitting this variable in its different affecting components. The astronomical tide is a well studied and well known phenomenon and can be forecasted with accuracy. The forecast of the storm surge however is a more complicated process. Different systems developed to forecast the storm surge have been analysed in order to know their limitations, and to try to overcome them. The first system analysed is the Nivmar system. In the analysis of Nivmar, two main factors have been signalled as the possible cause of the limitation in the forecast accuracy. The first factor is the spatial resolution of the atmospheric forcing fields used in the simulations. With the increase in the resolution of the atmospheric forcing fields, it has not be obtained an increase in the accuracy of the storm surge forecasts, however, the system has been updated due to the changes carried out in the simulation domain and in the forecast horizon. The second factor to take into account is the numerical model used to forecast the storm surge. To check if the numerical model is the forecast limitation factor, a methodology to inter-compare barotropic models has been developed. With this new methodology the comparison between the barotropic version of the HAMSOM model and the MOG2D model has been performed. The results of this comparison have shown similar fits to the measured series with both models, so, it has been demonstrated that the accuracy limitation factor is not the barotropic model used, but the fact of using a barotropic model. In order to improve the storm surge forecasts, it seems to be necessary to include the baroclinic component in the simulations. To obtain a new forecast including both (the barotropic and the baroclinic) components, a strategy to merge the simulations provided by two different numerical models has been tested. This way, the MOG2D model has provided the barotropic component, and the PSY2V2 system the baroclinic component to the storm surge forecast. After determine the appropriate way to merge both simulations, avoiding the duplicity of the forecasted components, the necessary transformations have been done and then, the combined storm surge series has been obtained and validated. The results of this validation have shown an improvement with regard to the barotropic models results, so, the importance of the baroclinic component to improve the accuracy of the storm surge forecasts, has been demostrated. The coupled storm surge can be obtained by means of two different operational systems, and also, the post-process to merge them in the appropriate way can be obtained in an operatinal way, improving the barotropic systems results. To join the simulation of both components in a system based on an only model, the development of the NEATL12 system has been started. As the last part of this document, the first results of this new system have been validated, and the main steps to introduce the atmospheric pressure forcing in the system are explained. With this new forcing, the new system is able to obtain a forecast of the storm surge with accuracy. Finally, a detailed frequencial analysis have been carried out, in order to know the possible causes limiting the accuracy of the low and high signals components of the residual.
