Los determinantes a largo plazo de la tasa de ahorro de los hogares españoles en el período 1985-2016
- Autores: Andrés de Andrés Mosquera
- Directores de la Tesis: Lucas Van Wunnik (dir. tes.), Anastasi Pérez Peral (codir. tes.)
- Lectura: En la Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) ( España ) en 2018
- Idioma: español
- Tribunal Calificador de la Tesis: Alejandro Esteller Moré (presid.), Carme Martínez Costa (secret.), Núria Arimany Serrat (voc.)
- Programa de doctorado: Programa de Doctorado en Administración y Dirección de Empresas por la Universidad Politécnica de Catalunya
- Materias:
- Enlaces
- Tesis en acceso abierto en: TDX
- Resumen
The paper studies the behavior of the household savings rate in the period 1985 to 2016. It examines the variables that the literature considers determine the long-term savings rate of households: income, wealth, unemployment, credit obtained, indebtedness, public savings, population structure, social benefits, interest rates and price level.
In the methodological framework of the error correction model, we contrasted the cointegration of the variables by four specifications of the savings rate based on the following long-term determinants: labour income as a proxy for permanent income, wealth, unemployment, the credit, the dependence rate and the social benefits. Other potentially determinant variables of the household savings rate are excluded: interest and prices due to their low significance; or, as in the case of public savings, due to the absence of cointegration.
The contribution of the variables to changes in the household savings rate show the special long-term relevance of the dependency ratio, confirming the relationship between demographic structure and savings rate. Related to the demographic structure and social legislation, social benefits have a large impact on the savings rate and show their relevance for the survival of the welfare state.
Of more conjunctural character, the credit and the unemployment determine the rate of long-term savings in any phase of the economic cycle. The variation in labor income, as a proxy for permanent income, affects the savings rate, especially in cycle changes when the expectations for permanent income change. We found the incidence of the iqueza less relevant. Finally, we found unconsolidated evidence that imbalances over the long-term rate are corrected in the short term through variations in labor income, wealth and credit.
The model obtained reflects the impact on the saving rate of the financial crisis and consequent credit contraction, both in 1991 and especially in 2008. We built a reduced model of the household savings rate derived from the previous one that shows the relevance of the Financial aspects of the household savings rate: we intend to demonstrate that a more decisive and anticipated public financial policy intervention in the face of the banking crisis of 2008 would have improved credit to households and the management of the economic cycle.
To do so, we studied the situation of the Spanish banking system through a set of variables such as the solvency ratio and the delinquency rate and its relation to the credit granted to households since 2008. We compared the financial policy performance in Spain and in two European countries that implemented aid to the banking system: we proposed an alternative scenario in which this financial policy intervention in Spain would have taken place more decisively and in a timely manner, as was done in the European countries being compared.
In this alternative scenario, we apply a reduced version of the proposed savings rate model and estimate the impact on the household savings rate. Under our hypotheses, the credit contraction and liquidity restriction would have been lower: the results obtained show a less reactive evolution of the household savings rate and less potential repercussion of the crisis that began in 2008.
