Resumen de Planning the integration of the renewable energy sources on islands, under the national electric system in mexico
Francisco Javier Mendoza Vizcaino
The electric generation systems on islands are based generally on fossil fuel. This fact and its supply make the electricity cost higher than in systems used in the continent. In this thesis, as a first part, a review of the renewable energy generation systems on islands is elaborated. To do it, 77 islands from 45 different countries were analized. This analysis will allow to know how the implementation of renewable energy sources could help these islands in developing a renewable and sustainable energy sector, including a reduction of electricity generation cost. The de-carbonising in the electricity generation is necessary to reduce fossil fuel consumption, the pollution emitted and to meet the Energy Technology Perspectives 2ºC Scenario (2DS) targets. Small islands are not exempt from this target, so this the emphasis of this thesis is placed on a 50-50 target: to reduce the fossil fuel consumption through electricity generation from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) to cover 50% of all electric demand by 2050 on small islands. This analysis will be based on three factors: economical, technical, and land-use possibilities of integrating Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) into the existing electrical grid.
As second part of the thesis, this work shows the results from a study case of the application of renewable energy technology in Cozumel Island, Mexico. This island is located in the Riviera Maya, in the Occidental Caribbean Sea. The analysis developed was made through long- term statistical models. A deterministic methodology was used to perform time-series simulations. As a first integration approaching, the simulations show that for the year 2050 a feasible integration of a system based on wind/PV can be achieved on the Island, reducing the electricity price from 0.37 US$/kWh to 0.24 US$/kWh (2050 in the Base Scenario). This result had a renewable penetration of 22.3% and does not considered a battery system or changes in the existing electric grid. With this scenario, the government will achieve its targets in renewable energy and in the reduction of the emissions of CO2. This will allow reaching a sustainable electricity sector.
In a second approach, and according to the results, all systems proposed are able to completely satisfy the renewable electricity needed by 2050 in all scenarios proposed. From the 12 system proposals that were compared, two systems, System 2 and System 7, were chosen as eligible systems to be installed. The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) result for System 2 was 0.2401 US$/kWh and for System 7 was 0.2008 US$/kWh by 2050 in the Base Scenario. Meanwhile, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) value fluctuated from 17.6% for System 2 to 31% for System 7, with a renewable fraction of penetration for System 2 of 56.1% and for System 7 of 56.9% by 2050 in the Base Scenario. The selection of the best system was made on the base of a Dimensional Statistical Variable (DSV) through primary and secondary category rankings. The presented proposal of three phases methodology determines the best systems for capturing the lower initial capital cost and the higher competitiveness of this new proposal compared with the current system of electricity generation on the Island, and can be applied on small islands as well.
As third part of this thesis, the analysis presents an optimization of the energy planning, a grid assessment, and an economic analysis, considering three growing scenarios (Low, Base and High) in the electricity consumption, to supply the energy demand for a hybrid power system (Photovoltaics/Wind/Diesel/Battery) on a small island by 2050.
