A collection of papers in decision analysis
- Autores: Gonzalo León Serrano
- Directores de la Tesis: Josep María Rosanas Martí (dir. tes.)
- Lectura: En la Universidad de Navarra ( España ) en 2008
- Idioma: español
- Tribunal Calificador de la Tesis: Miguel Àngel Ariño Martín (presid.), Ángel Emilio de Santiago Ruiz (secret.), Ángela María Carrasco (voc.), Eduard Bonet i Guinó (voc.), Miguel Ángel Canela (voc.)
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- Resumen
This thesis, as its name denotes, is a collection of three papers in Decision Analysis. The first paper is theoretical while the second and the third ones are empirical. The first paper is a critical review of the different concepts of rationality which are present in the academic literature. Rtionality plays a key role in the field of Decision Analysis; therefore we thought it would be interesting to highlight the similarities/differences/ that these different concepts may have. We reviewed the concepts of rationality implied by: Neoclassical Economics, Subjective Expected Utility Theory, Herbert Simon, Max Weber, and Juan Antonio Pérez López.
Group decision making is still an emerging issue, thus we chose it as the subject of the second paper. The paper explores how individuals risk attitudes may differ when individuals become part of a group. First, we elicited the individual utitlity curves of 86 MBA studentss. Later on, we formed 71 groups of two students; we also elicited their respectively group utility curves. Wi fittede a power function to every utility curve and compared the individual and group Ð parameters. We believe the approach we used offers new insights into group decision making.
In the third paper we explore if managers are mostly risk-takers, as western capitalism implies, and if there is anay relationship between managers' demographics and their respectively risk attitude. Although in textbooks on Decision Analysis both hypotheses are often taken for granted, there is a lack of empirical papers on these issues. We interviewed a total of 177 managers (who were participating in an Executive MBA) and elicited a utility curve for everyone. Using OLS we adjusted a power function to each curve and then calculated the degree of risk tolerance, as measured by the alpha parameter. Finally we used this variable as the dependent variable in a regression analysis where managers' demographics were taken as independent variables.
