Resumen de Models for the location decision for a combined cycle power plant: basic principles for solving the decision problem of the choice of location for a feasibility study of gas-fired power plants
The present thesis deals with the foundations for solving the decision problem of site selection for a feasibility study of gas-fired power plants, based on realistic and practical statements, under a business approach. The analysis of different theories and the investigation of site-relevant decision criteria has illustrated the broad range of site-specific factors and criteria that are to be taken into account. On the basis of existing projects, in which site theories were analysed for various industries, the present research project thus lays a new foundation for an extended specific approach in the area of electricity generation in gas-fired power plants.
For gas-fired power plants, IEA anticipates a major increase, but otherwise notes that renewables and nuclear power account for more than half of all the new capacity added worldwide until 2040. Due to the low investment costs per KW of installed capacity, the high efficiency factor, the low CO2-emissions and the relatively short construction times, a large number of gas and steam power plants are planned or are already under construction in Europe. A lot of countries have been focussing on liquefaction of natural gas (LNG) for several years. The physical properties of LNG facilitate its transport on tankers to the ports of destination and / or power plants, where the natural gas is returned to its gaseous state. Thus, LNG offers a practical alternative to the gas transport by pipelines and a possibility to put the procurement structure on a broader basis. This, in turn, will lead to new alternatives for the choice of sites. Projects like the Baltic pipeline or the Nabuko project offer the prospect of a greater security of supply.
The study considers the impact of measures to secure supply as decentralised generation and the use of renewable energies for power generation. The expansion targets of the EU 15 countries of 2004 and the values in each EU member country resulted in an indicative target value of around 20% of the share of renewable energies in the gross electricity consumption for the EU 25 in 2010. The political implementation in the individual EU 25 countries is one of the criteria for the choice of sites for power plant projects within Europe.
The importance of the international electricity trade for the liberalised electricity market in Europe is stressed. It may include the promotion of the Europe-wide competition in the generation of electricity, increasing the efficient use of the existing capacities in the power plant fleet, and expansion of the cross-border power transfer capacities between the individual European states. It is also essential good cooperation of all participants on the energy market, for the development of an efficient power plant fleet in Europe and finally, for the success of each individual company.The survey method used in the self-designed empirical questionnaire has proven successful in the present study. The extension of the quantitative investment calculation by a refined qualitative evaluation and decision process and the introduction of a modified utility analysis rightly seem to claim their place in such a paradigm. On the basis of empirical material, a detailed characterization of the weighting of site criteria was performed. As a result of this it was found that the criteria weighting for a site decision is a multipersonal process, in which the behaviour of the subjective or restricted rationality of the players involved does not allow for a definite conclusion, but only provides a conclusion on tendencies. However, it could be proved that the subjective component is moderated by a multipersonal process and thus, by forming collective judgements instead of individual judgements. Over time, restrictions change, new energy concepts and technologies are developed, decision criteria and parameters vary. This induces permanent adaptation and further optimization of the present approach.
