Assessing the sustainability of post-Covid China’s economy

• Rostan, Pierre ^[1] ; Rostan, Alexandra ^[1]
  1. [1] American University of Iraq - Baghdad (AUIB)
• Localización: Estudios de economía aplicada, ISSN 1133-3197, ISSN-e 1697-5731, Vol. 43, Nº 1, 2025 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Economic Cycles and Their Impact on Credit and Employement in Emerging Markets)
• Idioma: inglés
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Evaluación de la sostenibilidad de la economía de China post-Covid
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• Resumen

  • The objective of the paper is to assess the sustainability of post-Covid China’s economy. Quarterly growth rates (annualized) of Current Price GDPs of China and the U.S. are forecasted between Q2 2022 and Q4 2050. Two sets of forecasts are generated: forecasts using historical data including the pandemic (from Q1 1998 to Q1 2022) and excluding the pandemic (from Q1 1998 to Q3 2019). The computation of the difference of their averages is an indicator of the post-pandemic sustainability of the economies, the greater the difference the greater the sustainability. Used as a benchmark, U.S.’s economy shows a greater sustainability post-Covid-19 pandemic (+0.93%) than China’s economy (+0.18%) based on Q2 2022-2050 forecasts. Driven by strong growth, the American economy will consolidate its position as the world's leading economy for the next 30 years. Note that if the Covid-19 pandemic had not occurred, China would probably have taken the place of world leader in Q4 2023.