Spatio-temporal changes of hydrothermal conditions and suitable habitat of Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis (Hoola van Nooten) Swingle in China under climate change

• Autores: Yanli Xia, Yuxia Yang, Ting Li, Jian Ding, Ke Xu, Shiliang Xu, Yihe Wang, Xuchen Fan, Guofu Mei, Bo Yu, Jianming Yi, Rulin Wang
• Localización: Agricultura técnica, ISSN-e 0718-5839, ISSN 0365-2807, Vol. 83, Nº. 4, 2023, págs. 380-397
• Idioma: inglés
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  • ABSTRACT Finger citron (Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis (Hoola van Nooten) Swingle; Rutaceae: Citrus) is an important plant for both medicine and food. Due to the lack of suitability analysis, many problems have arisen in its planting. According to the daily observation data, Kriging interpolation was selected to spatialize precipitation and temperature data. MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to simulate the suitable areas of finger citron in China from the perspectives of bioclimate, soil, topographic factors and human activities in 2050s and 2090s. Results showed that temperature annual range (Bio7), annual precipitation (Bio12), human footprint (Hf), elevation (El) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were identified as the dominant environmental variables related to the distribution of finger citron. Spatiotemporal distribution of annual precipitation (Bio12) showed that in the future, the precipitation in South China tends to decrease first (2050s) and then increase (2090s). The spatio-temporal analysis of temperature annual range (Bio7) showed that the 20-30 ℃ region was relatively stable in the Sichuan Basin and the middle and lower reaches of the Pearl River Basin. Under the future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area showed a significant increase trend in 2090s, and the change of most, moderately and poorly suitable habitats showed no obvious law. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the centroid of the most suitable habitat of finger citron would move to the northwest, southeast and southwest respectively. Our results can effectively carry out to promote the recovery of its population.