An assessment of macroeconomic divergences in the euro area
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[1] Banco de España
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- Localización: Documentos ocasionales - Banco de España, ISSN 1696-2222, Nº. 4, 2003, págs. 1-84
- Idioma: inglés
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Resumen
Analysis of the degree of divergence among the countries forming part of the euro area is fundamental for assessing the risks implicit in the process of economic integration, and the monetary policy measures most pressingly needed in each country. Through the use of relatively simple analytical tools, this paper seeks to identify and assess those aspects liable to be a source of disparity within the euro area, seen both through the prism of the factors that a ect growth and those of a more strictly structural and cyclical nature. Some of the main conclusions presented in the paper point to the persistence of significant disparities between the euro area countries, these being related to long-term growth fundamentals such as research and development, the composition of human capital and the labour market. Conversely, from the standpoint of supply and demand factors, the degree of exposure to asymmetrical shocks is more limited, insofar as there are no substantial cross-country di erences, on either the supply or the demand side. Rather, there is a tendency towards a growing degree of homogenisation which, however, appears to have been checked in recent years. The greatest disparities are observed when analysing certain aspects of the structure of trade among the Member States. Finally, with regard to cyclical considerations, a high degree of synchrony can be seen which, in any event, would have come about in the process prior to the euro area being established, rather than in the initial years of the single currency. Foreseeably, however, as greater levels of liberalisation and flexibility are attained, the ability to absorb potential shocks will increase and national cyclical patterns will move more closely in step.
