Meta-analysis of land use systems development in Africa: Trajectories, implications, adaptive capacity, and future dynamics

• Sarfo, Isaac ^[1] ; Qiao, Jiajun ^[1] ; Yeboah, Emmanuel ^[2] ; Puplampu, Dzifa Adimle ^[3] ; Kwang, Clement ^[4] ; Fynn, Iris Ekua Mensimah ^[4] ; Batame, Michael ^[5] ; Appea, Emmanuella Aboagye ^[4] ; Hagan, Daniel Fiifi Tawia ^[6] ; Ayelazuno, Rosemary Achentisa ^[7] ; Boamah, Valentina ^[2] ; Sarfo, Benedicta Akua ^[4]
  1. [1] Henan University

     Henan University

     China

     
  2. [2] Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

     Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

     China

     
  3. [3] University of Hull

     University of Hull

     Reino Unido

     
  4. [4] University of Ghana

     University of Ghana

     Ghana

     
  5. [5] University of Georgia

     University of Georgia

     Estados Unidos

     
  6. [6] Ghent University

     Ghent University

     Arrondissement Gent, Bélgica

     
  7. [7] Department of Geography and Sustainability, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA

  Mostrar afiliaciones +
• Localización: Land use policy: The International Journal Covering All Aspects of Land Use, ISSN 0264-8377, ISSN-e 1873-5754, Nº. 144, 2024
• Idioma: inglés
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • In the face of a multiplicity of crises – including land cover change, climate hazards, economic uncertainties, social injustice, adaptation and sustainability concerns, relevant stakeholders have taken stern initiatives to avert these phenomena that continuously grow in magnitude and relevance. We investigate the driving mechanisms of land use cover change, across Africa’s sub-regions using integrated remote sensing techniques and existing literature. Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) and ANN-CA were utilized to simulate land use scenarios (2020–2050) in Africa. Fundamental drift in land use systems was found to be driven by an array of socio-political, economic and biophysical factors. Interestingly, land use and recover change (LURC) patterns were observed in the north and west African regions. A regrowth/greening in forests (+2.67 %) and a decline in deserts/barren areas (-16.62 %), grasslands (-16.58 %) and farmlands/shrubs (-12.88 %) can be observed during the last 40 years. Conversely, massive shifts in built-up (+216.52 %) and areas covered by waterbodies (+84.44 %) can be spotted. Predicted trends for natural vegetation estimate 1.69 % and 2.92 % reduction rates annually for forests and grasslands, respectively, over the next 30 years. The piecemeal of evidence provided shows more lands will be converted into built-environment and cultivated lands. Based on these premises, we propose a ‘4R value strategy’ that unifies actions, addresses resource-related conflicts and the drivers identified, amid sustainability concerns. The study’s standpoints prompt the decisions of governments, the scientific community and interested parties to create alternative futures by tackling prevailing trends which aggravate environmental degradation and poverty.