La opinión pública internacional en el contexto de la geopolítica de la globalización desinformativa. Análisis desde la teoría de la complejidad y de la baja racionalidad

• Autores: Sonia Valle de Frutos
• Localización: Relaciones internacionales, ISSN-e 1699-3950, Nº. 56, 2024 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Número Abierto), págs. 75-93
• Idioma: español
• Títulos paralelos:
  • International public opinion in the context of the geopolitics of misinformative globalization. Analysis from the theory of complexity and low rationality
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    Tradicionalmente la opinión pública internacional ha sido estudiada, desde la disciplina de las Relaciones Internacionales, en relación con los asuntos de seguridad y conflictos internacionales y la diplomacia pública, con una óptica basada fundamentalmente en el estudio de la política exterior de los estados. Conceptualmente se entendía como la suma de las opiniones públicas, desde el paradigma internacional estatocéntrico, y posteriormente desde la convergencia de las opiniones de los públicos internacionales con la influencia de los medios de comunicación tradicionales como agentes globalizadores y mediadores en la formación de los públicos internacionales. Con la llegada de la globalización digital, la opinión pública internacional se ha analizado desde teorías que se centran en la diplomacia pública, en la comunicación política y en teorías que enfatizan la dimensión social y colectiva del conocimiento para dar mayor amplitud al estudio de la integración y uso de las nuevas tecnologías. Sin embargo, hacen falta nuevos análisis en los que se tenga en cuenta el contexto de la geopolítica de la globalización desinformativa y su repercusión en la composición de los nuevos públicos digitales internacionales y que analicen cómo se articulan las opiniones públicas internacionales divergentes, como actor agregado que deriva en movimientos sociales.

    El estudio tiene como objetivo describir las características de la opinión pública internacional digital como nuevo actor en la esfera virtual, considerando las contradicciones que la geopolítica de la desinformación puede generar sobre los públicos internacionales. Para su reflexión se toma como punto de partida la teoría de la complejidad de Rosenau (1978) a partir del concepto de actor de naturaleza de agregación accidental no deliberada para la descripción de la opinión pública digital internacional, así como la teoría de la racionalidad de baja información para la comprensión de la composición actual de los públicos digitales internacionales con baja formación e información.

    Metodológicamente, se emplean los métodos descriptivo, analítico y comparativo. El primero y segundo, para describir la opinión pública internacional sustentada por los públicos internacionales, y para las analizar las teorías y su aplicación sobre estos. El tercero, para comparar datos cuantitativos de informes internacionales sobre el orden y el control de la información y la desinformación digital en el ciberespacio, a través de las redes sociales y el uso de la inteligencia artificial en una muestra que abarca ochenta y un países.

    La primera parte del trabajo aborda las perspectivas sobre las que se ha estudiado la opinión pública internacional desde el paradigma de las Relaciones Internacionales, teniendo en cuenta la dificultad de su medición y la dimensión digital como aspecto clave del desafío. En la segunda parte se estudia el contexto de la geopolítica de la globalización desinformativa, con las estrategias de manipulación de la opinión pública internacional. En la tercera parte se analiza la composición de los públicos internacionales. En cuarto lugar, se describe la opinión pública internacional como actor transcultural desde la teoría de la racionalidad de baja información. En último término se incluyen los resultados y conclusiones, subrayando la aportación teórica del estudio.

  • English

    Traditionally, international public opinion, since International Relations studies exist, has been studied regarding international security and conflicts and public diplomacy through a point of view essentially based in the study of the States’ foreign policy. Conceptually, from an estatocentric point of view, international public opinion was considered as a sum of individual public opinions, that will converge in a later stage, mostly influenced by the traditional mass media that act as mediators and globalizing agents.

    After the arrival of digital globalization, public opinion has been analyzed through theories that focus on public diplomacy, highlighting the importance of listening and interacting with the foreign public to obtain information and take it into account in the decision making. In this sense, political communication theories classify organizational and political actors’ messages, media content and the effects of the political behavior, while other theories that emphasize social dimension and collective knowledge amplify the study about the use and integration of new technologies. However, new analyses are required that will consider the new geopolitical context of globalization, characterized by two main elements. On the one hand, the power of manipulation and virilization of social networks and artificial intelligence through their capacity to influence the political public sphere (Habermas, 2022; Colomina, 2022). On the other hand, the composition of the new international digital publics considering variables such as disinterest, ignorance and misinformation (Valle-De Frutos, 2023; Stijn van Kessel et al. 2021) and also analyzing how divergent international public opinions are articulated, considered as an aggregate actor that derives in social movements.With the intention of uncovering the potential contradictions implied in the hyperconnectivity generated by digital globalization, the study’s main purpose is to describe the characteristics of international digital public opinion, considered as an actor in the new virtual public sphere. For this, the paper takes its starting point in the theory of complexity of Rosenau (1978) and, notably, his concept of accidental aggregation of nature as a player as well as the rational theory of low information. This will allow us to understand the actual composition of the international digital public.Concerning the methodology, descriptive, analytical, and comparative methods are employed. The first one, to describe the international public opinion supported by international audiences; the second, to analyze theories and their application to describe the composition of users; finally, the third, to compare indicators from international reports, which provide us with quantitative data on the order and control of information and digital misinformation in cyberspace. These are based on tools, strategies, and techniques for manipulating international information through social networks and the use of artificial intelligence, underpinned in a large sample of eighty-one countries.The analysis is organized in three parts. Firstly, after analyzing the geopolitical misinformation from 2016 until 2023, it is concluded that the manipulation of the international public opinion through social media continues to be one of the biggest threats and a current trend of the democratic critic. The most used communication strategy consists of creating misinformation or manipulated media through fake news, memes, images or tampered videos, as well as other forms of misleading online content such as deepfake. Second, there is the use of trolling, doxing or online harassment to attack opponent politicians, activists or journalists in social media. Third, there is the strategy based on data to profile and address advertisements to specific segments of society political using ads that aim misinformation and false narratives. Finally, the least used strategy is based in the censure of speech and expression through a mass complaint of content and accounts. Additionally, conventional ways to control international information are used through four additional strategies: blocking sites and social media, connectivity restrictions, VPNs blocking, and forced content removal.Moreover, the international public opinion can almost be seen as a true agent if we consider the influence that it can have in the digital geopolitical globalization. The cyberspace was considered, in the context of informative globalization, as a space of hyperconnectivity of the global society, with a potential access to information. This has had importance consequences which are, on the one hand, an excess of information or regular reports and, on the other hand, a bigger conscience about the international events, which doesn’t necessarily mean a greater knowledge thereof. However, this first contradiction about the potential effects of hyperconnectivity doesn’t automatically generate a common interest, knowledge or connection from the international public towards global challenges. In this regard, as the new media includes web 2.0, social media and logs are now characterized by their disconnection, their selflessness and the unknown.Furthermore, contrary to traditional thesis about the international public being unstable and contracting in international or defense politics matters, other theories have claimed that the public can reach reasonable outcomes and have attitudes towards international relations, despite not having the complete information about global events. Since the release of theories like the rationality of low information, we can assume that the public can generate their own international images and arguments from various factors. Firstly, the structure of values and beliefs, which helps them to judge and guide their evaluations about international issues without any specific knowledge in one of the fundamental factors. In second place, the trust dimension, as a part of the structure of beliefs, is also a cultural factor that can determine the attitude and opinions towards international issues.To conclude, it is set that international public opinion is a transcultural agent that transcends cultural borders, as if a natural agent of accidental aggregation, articulated and non-intentional, can become deliberate. This process can take place through a transformation of different phases. In the first phase, they spontaneously form groups of individuals with similar opinions about a specific matter coexisting in a determinate time. Meanwhile, this group formed by accidental aggregation can become, in a second phase, a deliberate aggregation when they believe that their opinions, shared with individuals from other countries, generate a conscience about a matter that can be made into a collective action. When this action achieves a continuity and a certain degree of structure and organization, it can assume the identity of a social movement, which usually has a leadership or a main voice. In this regard, the evolution or prediction of public behavior can be described through two transformations. The first one, related to cognitive character, in which the public acts following their idiosyncratic beliefs from the shared norms that could potentiate and produce a common cultural foundation. This determines and configures the transcultural international public opinion. Secondly, the relational character, which means that the international public or crowd is perceived as an expansion of the individual in a group identity, increasing the trust, respect, cooperation, and mutual help behavior, which would generate the creation of groups that could unleash collective actions and possible international movements.