Continuous-time modelling of the hot hande effect in basketball free throws

• Sina Mews ^[1] ; Marius Ötting ^[1] ; Houda Yaqine ^[1] ; Roland Langrock ^[1]
  1. [1] Bielefeld University

     Bielefeld University

     Kreisfreie Stadt Bielefeld, Alemania

     
• Localización: Proceedings of the 35th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling : July 20-24, 2020 Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain / Itziar Irigoyen Garbizu (ed. lit.), Dae-Jin Lee (ed. lit.), Joaquín Martínez Minaya (ed. lit.), María Xosé Rodríguez Álvarez (ed. lit.), 2020, ISBN 978-84-1319-267-3, págs. 165-168
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • We investigate the hot hand phenomenon in basketball using data on 110,513 free throws. As these occur at unevenly spaced time points within a game, we formulate a continuous-time state-space model to relate the actual throwing performance to the latent underlying form of a player. Our results reveal serial correlation in the latent throwing success probability, thus supporting the existence of a hot hand e ect.