Invariance and the forecasting of mortality II: Standard errors

• Autores: I. D. Currie
• Localización: Proceedings of the 35th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling : July 20-24, 2020 Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain / Itziar Irigoien Garbizu (ed. lit.), Dae-Jin Lee (ed. lit.), Joaquín Martínez Minaya (ed. lit.), María Xosé Rodríguez Álvarez (ed. lit.), 2020, ISBN 978-84-1319-267-3, págs. 51-54
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • This is a companion paper to the paper we presented at IWSM 34 in 2019 on the modelling of human mortality. Many such models are not identifiable so parameter constraints are often used to obtain parameter estimates that are then used for forecasting. In the 2019 paper we considered the invariance of the central forecasts of the force of mortality with respect to the choice of constraints when an ARIMA model is used to forecast parameter estimates. In the present paper we consider the standard errors of these forecasts and show that these too are invariant when an ARIMA model is used. We illustrate our results with the same Portuguese data.