Responsiveness to external developments through the trade channel: New estimates for the euro area
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Daniele Antonucci [1] ; Alessandro Girardi [2]
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[1] Centro Studi Confindustria
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[2] University of Rome
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- Localización: Trade policy in a globalizing world / Yuki Watanabe (ed. lit.), Haruto Yamashita (ed. lit.), 2009, ISBN 9781604568301, págs. 207-235
- Idioma: inglés
- Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
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Resumen
This work aims at assessing the impact of various external shocks on trade exchanges between the euro area and the rest of the world using cointegration techniques for simulation purposes. The main results are: i) non-price competitiveness factors and the real exchange rate affect the euro area trade balance in the long-run. Furthermore, the Marshall-Lerner conditions is strongly rejected; ii) extending the sample span over the post-EMU period, i.e. accounting for the introduction of the single currency, the results are qualitatively similar in terms of statistical significance and feedback mechanisms; iii) changes in foreign demand and in the price of oil do not exert a statistically significant impact on the trade balance; iv) domestic demand and price competitiveness play the main role in explaining trade fluctuations. Moreover, the share of volatility attributable to the former increases over time, while the contribution of the latter remains stable and accounts for the biggest proportion.
