Resumen de Measuring the Relationship Between Economic Crises and Investment Portfolios - A Sample Study of Iraqi Banks
Purpose: The study aimed to measure the closing price indicators for the Iraqi bank sector during the period (2010-2020) and using the PMG / ARDL index, which is an acronym for pooled mean group / Autoregressive distributed lag, i.e. self-regression to slow down. Distributed tablet data, to measure the relationship between the components of the economic crises of the dependent variable (closing price) of the Iraqi banks, the study sample, and the independent variables each of (gross domestic product, market value, global oil prices and economic crises).
Theoretical framework: The Iraqi economy is affected by economic crises along with the performance of investment portfolios in Iraqi banks.
Methodology of the study: To highlight the different conclusions taken by the banks that contribute In its success: Barony's co-integration test, according to the four formulas, shows that there is long-term integration between the dependent variable (closing price) and the independent variables (market value, gross domestic product, crude oil prices) during the quarterly period 2010-2020, which means that the PMG method can be applied. /ARDL.
Findings: This study showed that there is an adverse effect from the gross domestic product to the closing prices of the banking sector, and this can be justified by the increase in the gross domestic product associated with the increase in oil revenues. Because the oil sector contributes to 60% of GDP in Iraq.
Practical & Social implications: Study main necessary comes from paying attention to the development of investment portfolios in Iraq by following solid policies in implementing the necessary procedures for investing in portfolios, raising awareness of the culture of investment portfolios within investment communities or investment companies, and establishing the idea of establishing a fund to guarantee investment portfolios in a symbiotic manner that reduces the risks of fluctuations in oil revenues resulting from Crises.
Originality of study: Comes from that decision makers can reach solutions and treatments to mitigate their severity, and address the imbalance in the stock market in a way that achieves an improvement in the contribution formed by the rest sectors in the total GDP, and reduce the risks resulting from dependence on oil revenues.
