Economic policy uncertainty and international tourist arrivals: A disaggregated analysis of the Croatian Adriatic coast

• James E Payne ^[1] ; Saban Nazlioglu ^{[2] [3]} ; Andrea Mervar ^[4]
  1. [1] University of Texas at El Paso

     University of Texas at El Paso

     Estados Unidos

     
  2. [2] Pamukkale University

     Pamukkale University

     Turquía

     
  3. [3] Nişantaşı University

     Nişantaşı University

     Turquía

     
  4. [4] The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Croatia

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• Localización: Tourism economics: the business and finance of tourism and recreation, ISSN 1354-8166, Vol. 29, Nº. 4, 2023, págs. 986-1004
• Idioma: inglés
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • This is the first study to examine the differential impact of Croatian and European economic policy uncertainty indices while controlling for the real effective exchange rate and industrial production on international tourist arrivals for the seven coastal counties of Croatia and the country as a whole. The Toda-Yamamoto long-run causality modeling approach with a Fourier approximation is employed to capture structural shifts. This approach is particularly useful in light of the disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism sector. The results show unidirectional causality from both Croatian and European economic policy uncertainty indices to international tourist arrivals with the impact of the economic policy uncertainty indices negative and statistically significant across the respective coastal counties. Moreover, the findings show that European economic policy uncertainty exhibits a greater adverse impact on international tourist arrivals relative to Croatian economic policy uncertainty.