Resumen de Correlational analysis between the economics, socio-demographic indices and statistics of contagion due to Covid-19, applying the Clustering methodology in countries of America
Elisa del Carmen Navarro Romero
, Oscar Mauricio Gelves Alarcón, Natalia García Corrales
Introduction: This research is motivated, by the current world situation, caused by the pandemic declared by the WHO before the spread and severity of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), notified for the first time in Wuhan (China) on December 31 of 2019. Through mathematical and statistical analysis, it seeks to show and explain in an expeditious manner, the causes for which there is a higher rate of contagion and lethality due to the virus, in different countries, taking into consideration patterns associated with social political behavior and economic, as a first approach to knowing statistics that allow generating forecasts for future periods, given the conditions.
Objective: The main objective of this work is to define the correlation of the economic, social and demographic variables of the countries of America, with respect to the contagion of the virus, proposing a forecast model on the level of contagion in each cluster proposed by the different regions of the American continent. Methodology: The study performs clustering (grouping) of the countries of America with respect to their geographical position North America, Central America and the Caribbean islands and South America, followed by a search for statistical data on social, economic and demographic indicators of the countries of America in recent years and statistics of levels of contagion of COVID 19 in sources such as international organizations regulating health issues. Next, a characterization and correlation of the collected data was carried out, to finally, based on the results of the correlation, make a forecast of the level of contagion that would be reached by each of the regions. Results: The purpose of this document is to provide information on the countries of North America, Latin America and the Caribbean with respect to the analysis of mortality from COVID-19, through methods of analysis of mortality from all causes as one of the approaches proposed to contribute to the assessment of the true magnitude of the burden of the COVID-19 epidemic in these countries.
Conclusions: The results show interesting information, since the Latin American curve turned out to be much less pronounced than that of the United States, in terms of contagion and deaths, despite the socio-demographic conditions, economic, technological and political opportunities. This analysis invites us to find out which are those correlations that directly impact the behavior of infections, taking into account variables such as age, gender, stratum, level of education, and other sociodemographic characteristics that may influence the spread or containment of the virus. Future research: It is proposed to study the correlation between race, sex, region and age vs levels of COVID 19 contagion in the Colombian context and the application of more robust statistical tools to develop models that allow correlation of variables and define possible level scenarios contagion, in addition to conducting a correlation study of economic and socio-demographic variables with respect to other diseases such as zika and dengue
