The effect of economic policy uncertainty on US tourism net exports

• Abebe Hailemariam ^[1] ; Kris Ivanovski ^[1]
  1. [1] Monash University

     Monash University

     Australia

     
• Localización: Tourism economics: the business and finance of tourism and recreation, ISSN 1354-8166, Vol. 28, Nº. 8, 2022, págs. 2219-2227
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • This article models the endogenously interrelated relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world industrial production (WIP), and the demand for US tourism net export (TNX) expenditures. To do so, we apply an identified structural vector autoregression model over monthly data spanning from January 1999 to October 2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in WIP has a significant positive effect on demand for TNXs. In contrast, unanticipated increases in price and EPU have a statistically significant negative effect on TNXs. Our results show that, in the long run, a one standard deviation shock in global EPU explains about 26.05% of the variations in tourism net service exports.