Linfei Li, Sufyanullah Khan, Chenhao Guo, Yanfen Huang, Xianli Xia
Based on the theory of New Economic of Labor Migration (NELM) and Induced Technological Change, this study takes 935 part-time households in the Loess Plateau region as the research object. The study analyzes the current situation of non-agricultural labor transfer and agricultural production, and describes the intrinsic relationship and mechanism of the action between non-agricultural labor transfer, factor allocation and farmland output-rate. The direct and indirect effects of non-agricultural labor transfer on unit farmland output are tested empirically through the mediating effect model and the moderating effect model, and the effectiveness of the mechanism of action is further tested using the moderated mediation model (Bootstrap). The empirical results show that non-agricultural labor transfer has significant and negative impact on farmland output. Moreover, labor-substituting factor inputs play a partially mediating role between non-agricultural labor transfer and farmland output-rate, with a mediating effect size of − 1.552, accounting for 53.073 % of the total effect. The findings also demonstrate that higher the proportion of slope cropland, the smaller the positive effect of labor substitute factor input on farmland output. Similarly, non-agricultural labor transfer has a significant and negative effect on farmland output for low-part-time peasants and cash crops, the negative effect on peasants participating in farmland transfer is not significant, and a larger negative effect on distant working peasants. Based on the above findings, this paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations for optimizing the allocation of agricultural factors and improving agricultural production efficiency, aiming to provide a theoretical basis and decision-making reference for ensuring abundant grain production and agricultural harvest in the Loess Plateau region, lifting peasants out of poverty and increasing their income, and realizing the rural revitalization strategy.
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