Resumen de Is there a tradeoff between nature reserves and grain production in China?
Yuquan Chen, Shenggen Fan, Chang Liu, Xiaohua Yu
China is committed to increase its nature reserves (NRs) coverage up to 18% of its land by the end of 2035. Concerns associated with natural reserve expansion include local grain production restraint and its threat to national food security since agricultural activities are limited in designated natural reserve zones. Grain production has always been one of the top national priorities as it links to national food security. This paper uses an unbalanced panel data with 940 counties from 1989 to 2018 and time-varying difference-in-difference (DID) methodology to estimate the impact of National-level Nature Reserves (NNRs) on the local agricultural production. Our results find the NNR policy reduces the average grain production by 4.4% at the county level, and the impact is greater in high-yield areas. The mechanism analysis verifies the NNRs decrease both the grain yield and cultivated farmland area in the county with NNRs. To offset the trade-off effect between NRs and food security, we suggest productivity enhancement policy and careful NR demarcation should be promulgated to the counties that implement NR policy, especially in the early phase of the NRs and in the high-yield areas.
