Resumen de Validation of a model to estimate climate effects on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in a hydrological basin
Vidal Salazar Solano, Jesús Mario Moreno Dena, Isaac Shamir Rojas Rodriguez, Hugo César De La Torre Valdez
ABSTR ACT Objective. To validate a simulation model which enables the estimation of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production, based on climatic variables in the lower Mayo River basin in Sonora, Mexico.
Design/methodology/approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Crop Yield simulation model was used to estimate productive wheat yields. The model was fed with climatic data for the 1979-2014 period, provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Subsequently, the results were validated using the Nash-Sutcliffe, PBIAS, and R2 statistics. The predictive capacity of the model was validated in four of the six Hydrological Response Units with agricultural land in the study area: 26, 27, 28, and 31.
Study limitations/implications. The model does not include adaptation measures and future production scenarios based on climate data estimation must be developed.
Findings/conclusions. The inf luence of climate change on wheat production has been confirmed; the predictive model used is an important tool that can be adjusted and adapted to other regions and production systems.
