Economic policy uncertainty, consumer confidence in major economies and outbound tourism to African countries

Hassan F. Gholipour; Robin Nunkoo; Behzad Foroughi; Hassan Kalantari Daronkola

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Economic policy uncertainty, consumer confidence in major economies and outbound tourism to African countries

Gholipour, Hassan F. ^[1] ; Robin Nunkoo ^[2] ^[5] ^[6] ^[7] ; Behzad Foroughi ^[3] ; Hassan Kalantari Daronkola ^[4]
1. [1] University of Western Sydney
  
  University of Western Sydney
  
  Australia
2. [2] University of Mauritius
  
  University of Mauritius
  
  Mauricio
3. [3] I-Shou University
  
  I-Shou University
  
  Taiwán
4. [4] Swinburne University of Technology
  
  Swinburne University of Technology
  
  Australia
5. [5] University of Johannesburg
  
  University of Johannesburg
  
  City of Johannesburg, Sudáfrica
6. [6] Griffith University
  
  Griffith University
  
  Australia
7. [7] University of Copenhagen
  
  University of Copenhagen
  
  Dinamarca
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Localización: Tourism economics: the business and finance of tourism and recreation, ISSN 1354-8166, Vol. 28, Nº. Extra 4, 2022 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Africa Rising - Tourism Economics Research in Africa), págs. 979-994
Idioma: inglés
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Resumen
- Uncertainty, which is the only certain thing about the future, influences economic agents, their behaviours and economic activity. Debates and concerns about policy uncertainty have intensified following events such as the financial crisis, Brexit and more recently, the Covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty and consumer confidence in a set of major economies on tourism flows to African countries. Using data over the period of 2005–2019 and applying panel difference generalized method of moments method, our results show that a positive change in consumer confidence in Canada, China, France, Japan, Russia and the United Kingdom (UK) has favorable impact on tourism departures from these countries to 25 African countries. We also find that a positive change in uncertainty in Canada, Russia, Spain and the UK has negative effect on tourist departures from these countries to African countries. The implications of the results for tourism development in African countries are discussed.