Dangerous dyads in the post-Soviet space: explaining Russia's military escalation decisions, 1992–2010

• Paolo Rosa ^[1] ; Adriana Cuppuleri ^[1]
  1. [1] University of Trento

     University of Trento

     Trento, Italia

     
• Localización: Rivista italiana di scienza politica, ISSN 0048-8402, ISSN-e 2057-4908, Vol. 51, Nº. 3, 2021, págs. 355-372
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • This paper analyses the military behaviour of Russia from 1992 to 2010. The method used is a combination of the dyad analysis introduced by Stuart Bremer in 1992 and the analysis of unit-level variables, which is distinctive of foreign policy analysis. We empirically test a set of hypotheses about the determinants of Russia’s military behaviour in the post-Cold War period by considering the impact of changes of international variables– relative power, the presence of military alliance pacts, the territorial salience of the dispute– and state-level variables– the degree of democracy/autocracy and regime vulnerability. A bivariate and a multivariate analysis are carried out to explain the separate and joint impacts of independent variables.