Resumen de Modelling urban sprawl and assessing its costs in the planning process: A case study in Flanders, Belgium
Karolien Vermeiren, Tomas Crols, Inge Uljee, Leo De Nocker, Carolien Beckx, Ann Pisman, Steven Broekx, Lien Poelmans
In scientific literature there is a wide agreement on the negative consequences of urban sprawl for some decades. Quantifying these negative consequences of urban sprawl can be extremely helpful for local and regional decision making. Numerous methods have been developed to quantify urban sprawl and its consequences and land use models have been used to study possible effects in the future. The results of these studies, however, do not always find their way to policy makers because they are often too abstract for them. In order to bridge this science-policy gap, this study proposes a participatory approach to make existing methods and models more fit for policy purposes. The study focuses on three policy questions: (1) how to quantify urban sprawl in a way that is more intuitive for policy makers to use in their communication, (2) how to quantify the costs of infrastructure and mobility related to urban sprawl and (3) how will these costs evolve towards the future? Three urban growth scenarios were simulated using a land use model and the outputs of the model were translated to an urban sprawl typology and corresponding costs for infrastructure and mobility. This allows to evaluate potential monetary savings of alternative urban development patterns. The results show that costs for infrastructure and mobility are much higher for patterns dominated by dispersed buildings and ribbon development than in more dense types of urban development in Flanders. The scenarios show that gradually bringing back urban growth could lead to annual savings of 246–383 million euros in terms of reduced investments and maintenance costs for infrastructure and annual savings of 1156–1965 million euros in terms of costs for mobility. Quantifying the potential savings of alternative scenarios of urban growth offers planners and policy makers insight into practical consequences of strategic decisions for development plans that are critical to implement sustainable urban development.
