Estimating the Possible Effect of Belt and Road Initiative on Brazilian Economic Growth

• Michele Romanello ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina

     Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina

     Brasil

     
• Localización: Estudios de economía aplicada, ISSN 1133-3197, ISSN-e 1697-5731, Vol. 40, Nº 1, 2022 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Sports Analytics within Sports Economics and Management)
• Idioma: inglés
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • Brazil's future participation in the Belt and Road Initiative will promote economic growth, increase the importance of the initiative on the international scene and contribute to the promotion of bilateral economic and trade relations between China and Latin America countries.

    This paper analyses the alleged effect of BRI on Brazilian economy if the country would have chosen to join the program in the past years (2013-2019) as other countries in the world did. The alleged effect is calculated using the methodology of synthetic control: a statistical method used to evaluate the effect of an intervention/programme in comparative case studies.

    The results show that Brazil could benefit from joining the Belt and Road Initiative: the GDP per capita rate would be 4.73% higher each year, on average.

    However, to Brazil joins the BRI, it will be necessary for China and Brazil to know how to maintain a frequent and structured dialogue that projects confidence, opens paths and does not leave governmental dialogue behind what is happening in practical reality. Moreover, more academic research about the initiative and a greater dissemination of its benefits by the media will be needed to raise awareness among the public and politicians about a probable BRI agreement by Brazil.