Resumen de Determinación de umbrales pluviométricos para la reactivación de grandes deslizamientos mediante curvas Roc
Guillem Domènech Surinyach, Jordi Corominas i Dulcet, Jose Moya Sánchez
Rainfall is a well known trigger of landslides in many regions in the world. Many previously published studies have focused on determining the critical rainfall threshold responsible for the slope failures occurrence and/or landslide reactivations. However, establishing rainfall thresholds is difficult when the exact date of the failure is unknown. In the Tremp Basin (Eastern Pyrenees), dendrogeomorphology has been used to identify recent landslide events with an accuracy of a year and a ROC curve analysis has been performed in order to define possible rainfall thresholds. Even though a direct relationship between the accumulated rainfall and landslide occurrence has not been found, the contingency tables prepared using different threshold rainfall values have allowed the establishment of a relationship between the daily rainfall and the antecedent rain. The lack of a full predictive capability of the threshold indicates that this must be refined and validated with additional data.
