Exchange rate uncertainty and cereals exports: A panel VAR approach

• Autores: Ronald Miranda Lescano, Leonel Muinelo Gallo
• Localización: Revista de economía mundial, ISSN 1576-0162, Nº 59, 2021, págs. 191-219
• Idioma: inglés
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Incertidumbre del tipo de cambio y exportacionesde cereales: una aproximación de panel VA
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• Resumen

  • This paper empirically investigates the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on cereals export flows for a broad sample of countries during the 2010/01 - 2016/12 period. To do this, we first estimate the exchange rate volatility, and then, we estimate the cereals export demand by using a panel data model with autoregressive vectors (P-VAR). This strategy of analysis is applied over different groups of countries, which are obtained by cluster analysis based on the level of exchange rate volatility and the volume of cereals exports. The empirical results suggest a significant negative effect of exchange rate uncertainty on cereals exports in countries characterized by high and persistent exchange rate volatility or high volume of cereals exports.