Investigating the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in UK agro-ecosystems: An application of the DPSIR framework

• Moss, Ellen D. ^[1] ; Evans, Darren M. ^[1] ; Atkins, Jonathan P. ^[2]
  1. [1] Newcastle University

     Newcastle University

     Reino Unido

     
  2. [2] Hull University Business School, University of Hull, Hull, UK
• Localización: Land use policy: The International Journal Covering All Aspects of Land Use, ISSN 0264-8377, ISSN-e 1873-5754, Nº. 105, 2021
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Understanding how climate change will affect agro-ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide is a significant global challenge. Investigating this topic requires a holistic approach that can capture the complexity of agro-ecosystems and assess impacts on the physical, biological, and socio-economic aspects of the system. The Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework is a problem structuring method commonly used in environmental policy and management to collate and synthesise multidisciplinary evidence. By reviewing relevant literature and policy documents, we created a DPSIR framework characterising the impacts of climate change on some key ecosystem services directly generated by farmland biodiversity, using UK agriculture as a case study. We focussed on three groups of service providers: pollinators, pest regulators and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. We used the standard DPSIR framework to establish broad-scale relationships, before developing two extensions to the initial DPSIR, which together formed a novel three-step approach. The second step allowed detailed exploration of the cause-effect relationships between different features of the agro-ecosystem, including cascading impacts on ecosystem services. This process highlighted knowledge gaps relating to the impacts of climate change on species interactions and cultural services. The third step provided a visual summary of the expected directional trends for the different features of UK agro-ecosystems, based upon current evidence. This demonstrated negative impacts on biodiversity, soil quality, crop yields and a wide variety of ecosystem services and goods, which can only be addressed effectively with targeted policies. The novel three-step DPSIR approach developed here would be useful for modelling other complex systems where management is impeded by knowledge gaps and the availability of accessible syntheses of current evidence.