Resumen de Global potential assessment of available land for bioenergy projects in 2050 within food security limits
Tomás Andrade da Cunha Dias, Electo Eduardo Silva Lora, Diego Mauricio Yepes Maya, Oscar Almazán del Olmo
This paper evaluates the potential of available land area for bioenergy projects in 2050 without compromising food security. The paper's novelty is the qualitative and quantitative assessment of parameters interfering with land availability for bioenergy projects. Unlike previous studies, the projections consider food waste, areas of degraded or abandoned land due to low productivity, and parameters generally overlooked by other authors, such as urban agriculture and insect protein consumption. Population's food demand, agricultural productivity changes, and surplus land availability for biofuel production are bases for the methods employed. Three (3) different scenarios were defined: business as usual (Pessimistic Scenario - CP), the best of the realistic scenarios (Optimistic Conservative Scenario - CC), and the ideal situation (Ideal Scenario - CC). The authors did not consider social segmentation variations in land access, characterizing a weakness of the study. Projections disregard economic and market influences governing land use and distribution. Despite the risks to biodiversity because of agricultural frontiers' expansion, there is enough arable land in the world to feed the population in 2050 in the three proposed scenarios. However, choosing to prioritize forest preservation and going for shrubland areas as the next agricultural frontiers, no arable land would remain in the Pessimistic Scenario for biofuels. Otherwise, agriculture would cause deforestation of 24% of forest area (935 million hectares) and causing massive environmental impacts. In the Optimistic Conservative Scenario, 5.7% of agricultural land would remain, supplying 92% of the 2100 target, and in the Ideal Scenario, 42.0% of agricultural land would remain, with the potential of reach the 2100 target more than 6 times. Bioenergy could contribute to 5–17.7% of the global energy matrix in the most realistic scenarios.
