Resumen de Food security indices in Ukraine: Forecast methods and trends
Yevhenii Starychenko, Andriy Skrypnyk, Vitalina Babenko, Nataliia Klymenko, Kateryna Tuzhyk
The paper offers the calculation procedure of the integrated Food Security Index (FSI) based on the three-component analysis: economic accessibility, physical security, the sufficiency of consumption. It offers the methodology for forecasting under the conditions of macroeconomic instability based on the Food Security Indices. It shows that the standard forecasting methodology based on the separation of trend (deterministic) and random components cannot be applied in conditions of alternating intervals of economic growth and crises. In particular emphasis is placed on Jackson-Watson's methodology, which is based on the analysis of the internal structure of the process. The three-parameter ARIMA model was used in the forecast estimates of the Food Security Indices. The applied methods are complemented by exponential smoothing, damped trend model, linear and exponential smoothing, namely, Brown method, and two-parameter smoothing method (Holt's method), Pearl-Reed curve model. The research offers a food security risk assessment procedure in virtue of the econometric forecast error properties. Based on data mining, the results of forecasting the individual indices and the integrated Food Security Index make it possible to state a satisfactory condition that is unlikely to change shortly.
