The Development of Nonsymbolic Probability Judgments in Children
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O'Grady, Shaun [1] ; Xu, Fei [1]
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[1] University of California System
University of California System
Estados Unidos
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- Localización: Child development, ISSN 0009-3920, Vol. 91, Nº. 3, 2020, págs. 784-798
- Idioma: inglés
- Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
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Resumen
Two experiments were designed to investigate the developmental trajectory of children's probability approximation abilities. In Experiment 1, results revealed 6- and 7-year-old children's (N = 48) probability judgments improve with age and become more accurate as the distance between two ratios increases. Experiment 2 replicated these findings with 7- to 12-year-old children (N = 130) while also accounting for the effect of the size and the perceived numerosity of target objects. Older children's performance suggested the correct use of proportions for estimating probability; but in some cases, children relied on heuristic shortcuts. These results suggest that children's nonsymbolic probability judgments show a clear distance effect and that the acuity of probability estimations increases with age.
