Resumen de Causal Relationship Between Financial Development And Economic Growth In South Africa
The contributions of financial development and economic growth in South Africa are examined over the period 1965 to 2007, after accounting for unknown exogenous structural changes. Two cointegrated relations exist between the real income and each of the real financial development proxies excluding the real domestic credits which yielded a single cointegrated relation with real income. The Granger causality test is conducted after using both unit roots test and bound testing approaches to determine the level relationships between the variables. Generally, both versions of Hsiao’s stepwise Granger causality tests support ‘demand-following’ phenomenon in the short-run, while estimated factor loadings for long-run weak exogeneity tests between each of the real financial development proxies and economic growth support ‘supply-leading’ phenomenon, with the exception of liquid liabilities which showed a feed-back effect. Only the market capitalization ratio is Granger caused by real income in both short- and long-run. Thus supporting ‘demand following’ phenomenon in both periods. Policy-makers are advised to employ policies to enhance the role of domestic credits, and deepened the stock market to improve its contributions to the nation’s economic development.
