Econometric models of inflation In Brazil: structuralists, monetarists and rational expectations approachs, 1995-2017

Andre Cutrim Carvalho ^[1] ; David Ferreira Carvalho ^[2]
1. [1] Universidade Estadual de Campinas
  
  Universidade Estadual de Campinas
  
  Brasil
2. [2] Universidad Federal de Pará
  
  Universidad Federal de Pará
  
  Brasil
Localización: Applied econometrics and international development, ISSN 1578-4487, Vol. 19, Nº. 2, 2019, págs. 91-106
Idioma: inglés
Enlaces
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Resumen
- The present article seeks to demonstrate the evolution of the inflation rate in Brazil during the period between the era of President Vargas and the government of President Michel Temer, together with the determinants of inflation between 1995 and 2017. With the aid of structuralist, monetarist, and inertialist econometric models, we attempt to understand the factors that influenced the inflation rate during this period, based on the monetarist models of rational and adaptive expectations. Once the regressions have been completed, we reach certain conclusions on the statistical significance level of the model and whether its variables have the power to explain the inflation rates in Brazil during the period following the Real Plan. Finally, we conclude that there are reasons to reject the hypothesis that the trend variable is adequately formulated to capture the effect of financial innovations in the equation for the demand for money