Resumen de Energy transition and long-term operation of the spanish nuclear power plant fleet
As regards the issue of whether or not the production of electricity using nuclear means has a future, the answer is clearly positive at a global level.
As of the end of May, there were 450 operational reactors in 31 countries – many with authorisations for their continued long-term operation – and 59 more under construction in 16 countries, some with a long nuclear tradition and others that are newcomers to the sector, as well as a number of projects at different stages of planning and development.
In recent years, the production of electricity by nuclear means has represented almost 11% of that consumed across the world. In November 2017 the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a new edition of its forecast report World Energy Outlook 2017, in which three possible scenarios are contemplated: new policies, current policies and a new scenario – sustainable development – which “provides a road map for the energy sector bringing together three different but closely linked energy policy objectives: assurance of universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy sources by 2030; substantial reduction of atmospheric pollution causing sickness and deaths; and implementation of effective actions to combat climate change”, according to which world nuclear power would grow from the current 390 GWe plus to 586 GWe in 2030 and 720 GWe in 2040 Most of the nuclear growth will take place in China, where there has been a rapid increase over the last decade, from 53 TWh in 2005 (2% of the country’s total production) to 213 TWh in 2016 (3.5%). In the United States the installed power would drop from the current 121 GWe to 109 GWe in 2030 and to 105 GWe in 2040, the production decreasing to 851 TWh and 820 TWh respectively in these two years.
Likewise, in Europe installed power would drop from 144 GWe in 2016 to 112 GWe in 2030 and to 101 GWe in 2040, and production from 952 TWh to 789 TWh and 744 TWh respectively.
Other geographical areas such as Turkey and certain African countries, especially countries in the Persian Gulf such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are making important efforts to develop nuclear programmes allowing them to incorporate nuclear technology in their energy mix in a short space of time.
There is a particularly important issue that underlies decision-making in all areas of society: the containment of greenhouse gas generation. With a view to achieving the international objectives set out in this area, it is necessary to establish the technical, economic, human and training and knowledge-related mechanisms required, if possible agreed to by the social, political and business players, in order to map out specific policies for the decarbonisation of the economy.
In this respect, the IEA report points out that if the international community wishes to achieve the objectives mapped out in the Paris Agreement, nuclear energy – providing a solid, predictable and manageable basis – will have to produce at least 15% of the electricity consumed at world level by 2040. This increase will be supported by the new reactors that will come into operation and by extending the service lifetime of those currently in operation.
