Resumen de Estimation of the random error of binary tests using adaptive polynomials

ThomasS. Akkerhuis, Jeroen De Mast, TashinP. Erdman

• We investigate how to estimate error probabilities for binary measurements and tests when a gold standard is not available. Recent studies have shown that, without a gold standard, the widely used false-acceptance probability (FAP) and false-rejection probability (FRP) are difficult to estimate. We show by mathematical analysis that this problem is inherent to the unavailability of a gold standard. Instead, the proposed method determines the random components of the error probabilities: the inconsistent acceptance and rejection probabilities IAP and IRP. The method is efficient and robust as the number of model parameters is not predetermined but depends on the goodness of fit.