Resumen de Party convergence and vote switching: Explaining mainstream party decline across Europe
How can one explain the significant vote losses of mainstream parties across Europe in recentyears? In this article, it is argued that mainstream party convergence is an important determinant of therecent political and electoral volatility in European party systems. More specifically, it is hypothesised thatas mainstream parties converge on the left-right scale,voters will switch from supporting a mainstream partyto a non-mainstream party in the next election as they look for an alternative that better represents theirideological views. To test these theoretical expectations, data is combined from the Comparative Studyof Electoral Systems and the Manifestos Project for nearly 15,000 vote choices of individual voters in30 elections in 16 West and East European countries from 2001 until 2013. The findings have importantimplications for understanding the recent rise of non-mainstream parties, the changing nature of partysystems and the increasing complexity of cabinet formation across Europe.
