An Experiment on Time Preference and Misprediction in Unpleasant Tasks

• Ned Augenblick ^[1] ; Matthew Rabin ^[2]
  1. [1] University of California, Berkeley

     University of California, Berkeley

     Estados Unidos

     
  2. [2] Harvard University

     Harvard University

     City of Cambridge, Estados Unidos

     
• Localización: Review of economic studies, ISSN 0034-6527, Vol. 86, Nº 3, 2019, págs. 941-975
• Idioma: inglés
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • We experimentally investigate the time-inconsistent taste for immediate gratification and future-preference misprediction. Across 7 weeks, 100 participants choose the number of unpleasant transcription tasks given various wages to complete immediately and at different future dates. Participants preferred 10–12% fewer tasks in the present compared to any future date, leading to an estimated β of 0.83⁠. Comparing predictions with actual immediate-work choices provides evidence against substantial sophistication, with estimates implying that participants understand no more than 24% of their present bias. Finally, we find evidence of “projection bias”: participants wished to complete 4–12% fewer tasks when decisions were elicited right after completing tasks rather than before.