Simulating future wheat yield under climate change, carbon dioxide enrichment and technology improvement in Iran. Case study: Azarbaijan region

Hamed Mansouri; Yaghoub Raei; Abdolreza Nokhbe Zaeim

Ayuda

Simulating future wheat yield under climate change, carbon dioxide enrichment and technology improvement in Iran. Case study: Azarbaijan region

Mansouri, Hamed ^[1] ; Raei, Yaghoub ^[2] ; Nokhbe Zaeim, Abdolreza ^[1]
1. [1] Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
  
  Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
  
  Irán
2. [2] University of Tabriz
  
  University of Tabriz
  
  Irán
Localización: Spanish journal of agricultural research, ISSN-e 2171-9292, ISSN 1695-971X, Vol. 13, Nº. 4, 2015
Idioma: inglés
Enlaces
- Texto completo (pdf)
Resumen
- Climate change and technology development can affect crop productivity in future conditions. Precise estimation of crops yield change as affected by climate and technology in the future is an effective approach for management strategies. The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of climate change, technology improvement, CO2 enrichment, and overall impacts on wheat yield under future conditions. Wheat yield was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) compared to baseline year (2011) under two scenarios of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) including SRES-A2 as regional economic scenario and SRES-B1 as global environmental scenario in Azarbaijan region (NW of Iran). A linear regression model, describing the relationship between wheat yield and historical year, was developed to investigate technology development effect. The decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT4.5) was used to evaluate the influence of climate change on wheat yield. The most positive effects were found for wheat yield as affected by technology in all studied regions. Under future climate change, the SRES projected a decrease in yield, especially in West Azarbaijan region. When the effects of elevated CO2 were considered, all regions resulted to increase in wheat yield. Considering all components effect in comparison with baseline (2011), yield increase would range from 5% to 38% across all times, scenarios and regions. According to our findings, it seems that we may expect a higher yield of wheat in NW Iran in the future if technology development continues as well as past years.