Heat--Health Warning Systems: A Comparison of the Predictive Capacity of Different Approaches to Identifying Dangerously Hot Days.

• Autores: Shakoor Hajat, Scott C. Sheridan, Michael J. Allen, Mathilde Pascal, Karine Laaidi, Abderrahmane Yagouti, Ugis Bickis, Aurelio Tobias, Denis Bourque, Ben G. Armstrong, Tom Kosatsky
• Localización: American journal of public health, ISSN 0090-0036, Vol. 100, Nº. 6, 2010, págs. 1137-1144
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Objectives. We compared the ability of several heat — health warning systems to predict days of heat-associated mortality using common data sets. Methods. Heat — health warning systems initiate emergency public health interventions once forecasts have identified weather conditions to breach predetermined trigger levels. We examined 4 commonly used trigger-setting approaches: (1) synoptic classification, (2) epidemiologic assessment of the temperature — mortality relationship, (3) temperature — humidity index, and (4) physiologic classification. We applied each approach in Chicago, Illinois; London, United Kingdom; Madrid, Spain; and Montreal, Canada, to identify days expected to be associated with the highest heat-related mortality. Results. We found little agreement across the approaches in which days were identified as most dangerous. In general, days identified by temperature — mortality assessment were associated with the highest excess mortality. Conclusions. Triggering of alert days and ultimately the initiation of emergency responses by a heat — health warning system varies significantly across approaches adopted to establish triggers. (Am J Public Health. 2010; 100: 1137-1144. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2009.169748) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]