Evaluating the Impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on Tourism in Brunei

• Autores: Tariq H Haque, M. Ohidul Haque
• Localización: Tourism analysis, ISSN 1083-5423, Vol. 23, Nº. 3, 2018, págs. 409-414
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • This study investigated the effects of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on Brunei's economy and tourism for the first 22 months post-GFC. To estimate the impacts of the GFC, the effects of swine flu, which emerged and affected tourist numbers and the Brunei economy during this period, were eliminated. Tourist numbers were predicted for the post-GFC period, using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and intervention time series analysis (ITSA) methods. These predicted numbers were then compared with actual tourist numbers to estimate the impacts of the GFC. It is shown that Brunei lost 198,112 (36.44%) tourists and more than US$70.5 million due to the GFC during this period.