A dynamic model of the invalid vote: How a changing candidate menu shapes null voting behavior

• Autores: Mollie J. Cohen
• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Nº 53, 2018, págs. 111-121
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Existing scholarship attributes invalid voting to independent variables that are largely time invariant (e.g., levels of education, political institutions). Yet, rates of invalid voting vary widely across countries and over time. In this paper, I argue that dynamic features of political competition (e.g., the number of candidates competing) affect invalid voting in presidential elections in predictable ways. High levels of candidates should have a positive association with invalid voting, as voters frustrated by the status quo opt out of the process when political options are confusing or objectionable. Yet, positive change in the number of candidates ought to reduce null voting, as the entry of more candidates presents new options over which to cast valid ballots. I test these expectations, and find support for them, in multivariate analyses of aggregate electoral data from the Latin American region for 1982–2015.